Doubting The Downturn

By Tyler Cralle, in National Tyler Cralle on . Tagged width:

If you were making investment decisions at lunchtime yesterday, you probably chose wrong.  The Dow closed up 34 points to 24423 after bouncing 619 points from its low to its high point.

This continued volatility is clearly having an impact on the markets and business forecasts.  Businesses in the U.S. are less optimistic about the outlook for the coming year than they were 12 months ago according to a new ISM report… https://on.wsj.com/2UxUUfR

Businesses and investors are clearly spooked.  However, is their pessimism based on any actual facts or is it all just emotion?

New data shows that the tales of economic demise might be greatly exaggerated.  The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Hannon explains, “Economists at UBS Securities examined 120 recessions in 40 different countries over the past 40 years for clues about how economies behave before recession sets in…the model is consistent with a “sharp slowdown” in global growth, but not the end of the business cycle.” https://on.wsj.com/2GdzO3h

In more great economic news, low-skilled jobs are becoming increasingly difficult for employers to fill.  Eric Morath explains, “The number of unfilled jobs in the U.S. grew by 1.02 million at the end of October from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Monday. More than a third of those new openings were in two fields typically packed with entry-level positions: accommodation and food service and retail.” https://on.wsj.com/2C46urX 

Sure, President Trump’s trade war could still drag the economy into a recession but as for right now, things are looking pretty good.

“Might be a good time to buy the dip…”

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