Fake Drop

Home Blog Fake Drop
Fake Drop

The News & Observer thinks President Trump is having a rough start to his presidency.  This is probably true however there choice of proof is pretty laughable.  Elon recently released a poll highlighting Trump’s poor approval numbers…

Trump was elected in November with 49.9 percent of the vote in North Carolina, but today only 41.6 percent of Tar Heel voters approve of the job he is doing, the poll found. In the survey, 50.5 percent said they disapprove of his performance, and 7.9 percent were undecided.

“Though President Trump enjoyed considerable support among North Carolinians on Election Day, he has lost ground among the crucial independent voters responsible for his success over Hillary Clinton,” said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll.

A 7 point drop is an almost 9% drop.  If that doesn’t seem possible it’s because it isn’t.  While it’s true that Trump received 49.9% of the vote, it is not true he ever had a 49.9% approval rating.  Votes and approval are not the same despite the Observers best attempt to make you think that.  Almost every election comes down to a lesser of two evils decision.  Choosing the person you hate the least does not mean you approve of that candidate.  This is a giant mistake the News & Observer intentionally, or unintentionally, makes.  Therefore, comparing election results to an approval rating is like comparing apples and orages.  You can’t do it. If you want to compare Trump’s approval numbers you need another poll from Elon to do it.  Luckily we just that.

On November 1st, 2016 Elon university released its final poll before the election.  The results look eerily similar to what we saw today…

The race for the White House is essentially tied in North Carolina, with Clinton holding a lead of less than 1 percentage point. Among likely voters, Clinton has 42 percent of the vote while Trump has 41.2 percent, with 8.7 percent saying they are still undecided in the race.

I know what your thinking, “but this isn’t an approval poll it’s asking people who they are going to vote for?”  This is true.  But like most hypotheticals, asking people who they would vote is like asking them who they approve of.  Remember, I said voting is different than saying who you approve of. However, asking people who they would vote for is very similar to asking people who they approve of.  You can be undecided in a poll, most people are not undecided in the voting booth.  Therefore, Trump is not down 7 points.  He’s actually up .4%.

Nice try News & Observer.  Or should I say Fake News!  Just kidding.  Or am I…

Facebook Comments